Takashi Shiraishi
Special to The Yomiuri Shimbun
In mid-January, the Japan-Mekong Foreign Ministers' Meeting took place in Tokyo, involving Japan as host and the five Southeast Asian nations through which the Mekong River runs: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.
In the talks, Japan agreed to deepen its partnership with the Meong subregion in view of the area's rise in importance as a result of self-reliance efforts and infrastructure development, such as the east-west economic corridor. To that end, Japan will cooperate with the countries to promote regional stability and prosperity, enhance exchanges aiming to better integrate the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and extend economic assistance as required.
At the conference, Japan pledged to provide 20 million dollars for the improvement of distribution and customs services along the east-west corridor, linking Ho Chi Minh City, Phnom Penh and Bangkok, and another 20 million dollars for the "Development Triangle" project, which involves Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.
What is the significance of these developments?
A north-south corridor from Kunming, the capital of China's Yunnan Province, to Bangkok via Laos is being constructed, while China is increasing trade with and economic aid to the Mekong subregion. In light of this, Japanese initiatives are routinely read as Japan's countermove against China's southward expansion.
But this kind of simplistic geopolitical observation does not help us understand what is really going on. A road is a road regardless of who builds it. Besides, the east-west corridor and the north-east corridor both extend to China. The subregion is not an arena of Japan-China rivalry.
What, then, is happening there? I would like to touch on two things in particular.
First, the countries in the subregion, except for Thailand, are still in "transition." Vietnam and Laos are in transition from socialist party states to what I call "socialist market states" under one-party rule. Cambodia, where a long civil war ended in the 1990s, is also in transition as it embarks on national and economic reconstruction. In Myanmar, the military junta--which calls itself a "provisional" government pending the enactment of a new constitution--is eternally in transition, at least since the 1988 coup d'etat.
The success of all these transitions hinges to a large extent on viable economic development. The four countries are still poor. Annual national income per capita in 2005 stood at 620 dollars in Vietnam, 440 dollars in Laos, 380 dollars in Cambodia and 176 dollars in Myanmar.
Nevertheless, except for Myanmar, their economies have been growing rapidly. From 2002 to 2006, Vietnam registered an annual average economic growth rate of 7.8 percent, Cambodia 10 percent and Laos 6.5 percent.
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Future of Mekong development
Second, trade volume in the subregion has been rising sharply, reflecting remarkable economic growth. Trade with China is growing, but China is not the largest trading partner for all of the Mekong countries. According to 2005 trade statistics, China is the largest exporter to Cambodia and Myanmar at 47 percent and 34 percent, respectively. But the United States was the biggest destination of Cambodian exports at 63 percent, while Myanmar's biggest export market is Thailand at 49 percent. Thailand also was Laos' largest trading partner, receiving 43 percent of Laotian exports and supplying 69 percent of Laos-bound shipments.
As for Vietnam, 21 percent of its exports were shipped to the United States, followed by 12 percent to Japan and 6 percent to China, while 17 percent of its imports came from China, followed by 13 percent from Singapore, 10 percent Japan, 9 percent from South Korea and 7 percent from Thailand. This means that Vietnam does not rely heavily on one particular country. The same goes for Thailand.
As these figures show, countries in the Mekong subregion are deepening their economic interdependence with the help of economic and infrastructure development. In this open regional network of mutual reliance, Thailand is functioning as a hub, with Vietnam emerging as a second hub. Regional trade with China is increasing, but trade with China is growing in tandem with the expansion of trade with Japan, the United States and other ASEAN member countries. Such a positive development is a natural consequence of deepening economic interdependence underpinned by transnational and regional business networks.
What is happening in the economic sphere has implications for diplomacy. Even as Thailand and Vietnam are enhancing ties with China, they are pressing ahead with the integration of ASEAN and maintaining strong diplomatic connections with Japan and the United States. Such an approach is possible thanks to the progress in economic interdependence in the subregion.
Here lies the significance of the development of the Mekong subregion. As the subregion develops economically and is integrated into the global and East Asian networks of interdependence, the countries there will be in a position to forge open and balanced foreign relations in both political and economic fields.
In this connection, however, there is one sticking point--Myanmar. In Myanmar, the National League for Democracy won a landslide victory in the 1990 general elections. But the junta ignored the results and has since ruled the country as a "provisional" regime. For this reason, the United States has called Myanmar an "outpost of tyranny" and imposed economic sanctions.
ASEAN has adhered to a policy of constructive engagement toward Myanmar in an attempt to help the country "democratize" itself.
Given that the military junta has controlled Myanmar for 20 years now, both economic sanctions and constructive engagement have failed to help Myanmar achieve transition. Meanwhile, China has provided Myanmar with large official loans for the development of infrastructure, such as highways and electrical power stations, while India has been strengthening relations through natural resource development and joint military exercises.
Special to The Yomiuri Shimbun
In mid-January, the Japan-Mekong Foreign Ministers' Meeting took place in Tokyo, involving Japan as host and the five Southeast Asian nations through which the Mekong River runs: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.
In the talks, Japan agreed to deepen its partnership with the Meong subregion in view of the area's rise in importance as a result of self-reliance efforts and infrastructure development, such as the east-west economic corridor. To that end, Japan will cooperate with the countries to promote regional stability and prosperity, enhance exchanges aiming to better integrate the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and extend economic assistance as required.
At the conference, Japan pledged to provide 20 million dollars for the improvement of distribution and customs services along the east-west corridor, linking Ho Chi Minh City, Phnom Penh and Bangkok, and another 20 million dollars for the "Development Triangle" project, which involves Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.
What is the significance of these developments?
A north-south corridor from Kunming, the capital of China's Yunnan Province, to Bangkok via Laos is being constructed, while China is increasing trade with and economic aid to the Mekong subregion. In light of this, Japanese initiatives are routinely read as Japan's countermove against China's southward expansion.
But this kind of simplistic geopolitical observation does not help us understand what is really going on. A road is a road regardless of who builds it. Besides, the east-west corridor and the north-east corridor both extend to China. The subregion is not an arena of Japan-China rivalry.
What, then, is happening there? I would like to touch on two things in particular.
First, the countries in the subregion, except for Thailand, are still in "transition." Vietnam and Laos are in transition from socialist party states to what I call "socialist market states" under one-party rule. Cambodia, where a long civil war ended in the 1990s, is also in transition as it embarks on national and economic reconstruction. In Myanmar, the military junta--which calls itself a "provisional" government pending the enactment of a new constitution--is eternally in transition, at least since the 1988 coup d'etat.
The success of all these transitions hinges to a large extent on viable economic development. The four countries are still poor. Annual national income per capita in 2005 stood at 620 dollars in Vietnam, 440 dollars in Laos, 380 dollars in Cambodia and 176 dollars in Myanmar.
Nevertheless, except for Myanmar, their economies have been growing rapidly. From 2002 to 2006, Vietnam registered an annual average economic growth rate of 7.8 percent, Cambodia 10 percent and Laos 6.5 percent.
===
Future of Mekong development
Second, trade volume in the subregion has been rising sharply, reflecting remarkable economic growth. Trade with China is growing, but China is not the largest trading partner for all of the Mekong countries. According to 2005 trade statistics, China is the largest exporter to Cambodia and Myanmar at 47 percent and 34 percent, respectively. But the United States was the biggest destination of Cambodian exports at 63 percent, while Myanmar's biggest export market is Thailand at 49 percent. Thailand also was Laos' largest trading partner, receiving 43 percent of Laotian exports and supplying 69 percent of Laos-bound shipments.
As for Vietnam, 21 percent of its exports were shipped to the United States, followed by 12 percent to Japan and 6 percent to China, while 17 percent of its imports came from China, followed by 13 percent from Singapore, 10 percent Japan, 9 percent from South Korea and 7 percent from Thailand. This means that Vietnam does not rely heavily on one particular country. The same goes for Thailand.
As these figures show, countries in the Mekong subregion are deepening their economic interdependence with the help of economic and infrastructure development. In this open regional network of mutual reliance, Thailand is functioning as a hub, with Vietnam emerging as a second hub. Regional trade with China is increasing, but trade with China is growing in tandem with the expansion of trade with Japan, the United States and other ASEAN member countries. Such a positive development is a natural consequence of deepening economic interdependence underpinned by transnational and regional business networks.
What is happening in the economic sphere has implications for diplomacy. Even as Thailand and Vietnam are enhancing ties with China, they are pressing ahead with the integration of ASEAN and maintaining strong diplomatic connections with Japan and the United States. Such an approach is possible thanks to the progress in economic interdependence in the subregion.
Here lies the significance of the development of the Mekong subregion. As the subregion develops economically and is integrated into the global and East Asian networks of interdependence, the countries there will be in a position to forge open and balanced foreign relations in both political and economic fields.
In this connection, however, there is one sticking point--Myanmar. In Myanmar, the National League for Democracy won a landslide victory in the 1990 general elections. But the junta ignored the results and has since ruled the country as a "provisional" regime. For this reason, the United States has called Myanmar an "outpost of tyranny" and imposed economic sanctions.
ASEAN has adhered to a policy of constructive engagement toward Myanmar in an attempt to help the country "democratize" itself.
Given that the military junta has controlled Myanmar for 20 years now, both economic sanctions and constructive engagement have failed to help Myanmar achieve transition. Meanwhile, China has provided Myanmar with large official loans for the development of infrastructure, such as highways and electrical power stations, while India has been strengthening relations through natural resource development and joint military exercises.
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