Thursday, 9 October 2008

POLITICS-THAILAND: Tired of Instability - But More Ahead

IPS
Analysis by Johanna Son

BANGKOK, Oct 8 (IPS) - In the wake of Tuesday’s violent clashes with anti-government protesters that saw the Thai prime minister clambering over Parliament’s walls to safety, Noi, a Thai employee, says: "This is like a horror movie with no ending."

Like her, many Thais say they are increasingly tired of the political turmoil stemming from the drawn-out tussle between the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protestors and the Thai government.

In their latest action this week, PAD protestors encircled, blocked and then cut off electricity to Parliament to try to prevent Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat from reading out its policies as mandated by law.

Two people were killed and more than 300 injured in the dispersal carried out by the police around Parliament and nearby areas. Television and other media reports showed bloodied protestors and mayhem as authorities used teargas to break up the crowds, as well as some protestors carrying weapons against the police.

"I’m so tired of this PAD group, also when they began blocking government offices (to force the government out)," said Rose, a court staffer. "I used to think it was okay for people to express their ideas and thoughts and come out to protest. But this is way too much."

Ying, who works in the non-government sector, argues that PAD’s actions have crossed the line of democratic protests. "I wouldn’t call this a democratic form of protest because PAD is not representative of all Thai people. It’s just one group that is against [former prime minister] Thaksin [Shinawatra, who supports the current government]," she said in an interview.

One writer in a Thai discussion forum asked: "It is peaceful assembly when you prevent the government from carrying out its duties, when you use barbed wire and armed youth to block roads?"

Speculation abounds as to whether the violence could lead to a dissolution of the House or force the resignation of Somchai -- but he has so far rejected both. "I will try my best to carry out my duty," he was quoted as saying. He also told diplomats that the country would sort out its domestic problems through "democratic means".

Tuesday’s blockade was a variation on PAD’s kind of protest, one that some in this divided society call "undemocratic" and "thuggery", but others find it legitimate.

There is also heated debate about whether the police dispersal went overboard -- PAD leaders now call the government a "killer" one and will continue their protests-- but others say the state has the duty to function and clear protestors who want to hold the nation hostage. In the web discussion on pantip.com, there were reports that some doctors refused to treat police who were injured in the dispersal, and that it had even become risky for some policemen to be seen in their uniforms.

The dispersal outside Parliament comes six weeks after PAD sent thousands of protestors to occupy Government House on Aug. 26 -- and where they remain camped out until now. Earlier in May, they occupied the Makhawan bridge near the United Nations headquarters in Bangkok, and are still there.

On Wednesday, media reports said the army has been tasked to help the police in maintaining security, although there were no reports of new violence.

Some 5,000 protestors had gathered around the Parliament compound in old Bangkok late Monday, weeks after Somchai took over the prime ministership from Samak Sundaravej, whom the PAD-led protestors had also wanted out. He quit after a Constitutional Court ruling in September.

PAD, whose leaders include tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul and former Bangkok governor Maj. Gen. Chamlong Srimuang, wants Somchai out of power for the same reasons they opposed Samak.

They say that Somchai, a brother-in-law of Thaksin and also a member of the People Power Party of Samak, is only a proxy for Thaksin and, therefore, heads an "illegitimate" government. They are demanding that the PPP quit the government because it won the most number of seats in the last election because many poor voters, who did not know better, supported it and that Thaksin was behind it.

News reports said Somchai was escorted over the fence of the Parliament compound into neighbouring Vimanmek Palace near the close of session. Other members of Parliament were stuck inside for some seven hours.

The dispersal and the violence this week comes at a politically charged time, when talks were ongoing for a political truce between the Somchai government and PAD. Likewise, Chamlong, PAD founder, was arrested on Oct. 5 and before that, another group leader was picked up. Last week, nine PAD leaders were charged with insurrection and trying to overthrow the government through the seizure of Government House in August.

PAD also says that the elections have not led to good results for Thailand and proposes a system where there are more appointed members than elected to seats in Parliament.

But there is much less discussion of the PAD’s conservative policies compared to the focus in media on the personalities involved -- Samak in the past and Somchai today -- as well as the shadow of Thaksin, who along with his wife Pojaman is now seeking political asylum in Britain.

The larger tussle behind the continuing conflict between PAD and the current government remains one between elites who refuse to respect the wishes of the electoral majority, argues Giles Ungpakorn of Chulalongkorn University.

"The PAD’s claim that the government is somehow ‘illegitimate’ is based on the fanatical belief that the poor do not deserve the right to vote because they are ‘too stupid’," he argued, adding that the political opposition subscribes to this as well. "(But) this support from the poor is not surprising, since the party was the first elite party in 30 years to offer a universal health care scheme and public funds to develop the rural economy."

Others with similar views say that while the Thaksin government was far from the example of clean government, it nevertheless shrewdly courted populist support, which was carried over when the PPP, the successor of Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party, ran for the December 2007 national elections.

Through yet another episode in an unfinished political plot, many wonder what lies ahead.

"Brink of anarchy" and "Bloodshed", yelled the front pages of the English-language daily ‘Bangkok Post’ on Wednesday. "Don’t let the injuries and deaths be questions without answers," said the editorial of the alternative news site Prachatai.com.

Ying, the NGO worker, says Thai politics is regressing, with the PAD protests aimed at reversing, in effect, the results of the last election. "Thai politics is taking a step back, or this may be democracy in our context? But I really look forward to new national elections soonest."

But Rose says she does not think Somchai should step down. "I’m not saying that because I like him. If we have another election, we have to spend more and that comes out of our taxes."

Others point out that the political instability does not help at a time when people are worried about the impact of the U.S. financial crisis now spreading to other countries, and when Thailand and Cambodia just had border skirmishes over the contested Preah Vihear temple.

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