Wednesday, 10 February 2010

The Reds cant build up the momentum

via CAAI News Media

Posted by Thanong
February 8, 2010

Going into the final battle, the Red Shirts appears to be losing their momentum. Things do not go their way. A lot of confusion is going on inside the camp.

First, Gen Pallop Pinmanee has signalled that he would not want to have anything to do with the Red Shirts any more. Shortly earlier, he was the one who suggested to Thaksin Shinawatra that Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh be appointed as head of the People's Army. Why does the general jump ship while the battle is about to begin?

Second, Chaturon Chaisaeng is not happy with this move, which can bring down the rating of Pheu Thai further. The People's Army sounds like an overlapping army with the Royal Thai Army. Setting up the People's Army amounts to treason.

Third, then Gen Chavalit denies that he would like this job as head of the People's Army. But he would not completely distance himself from the Reds. Chavalit has already helped Thaksin to become economic advisor to Hun Sen, the Cambodian prime minister.

Fourth, Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdiphol, alias Sae Daeng, is not at odds against Chatuporn Phromphand, one of the core leaders of the Red Shirts. They have been trading foul words. Throwing a bomb here and there would not make a big difference.

Fifth, through their community radio networks, the Reds have threatened stage a people's war -- a one-litre bottle of gasline for each fighter -- ahead the Supreme Court's verdict on the Bt76 billion asset seizure case.

Sixth, Hun Sen had made a surprising visit to the border. He is trying to take advantage of Thailand's internal division for his political gain. At this point, Cambodia is not afraid to go to war with its neighbour. Probably he would like to be the first modern Cambodian leader to stand up against Siam.

Who is backing Hun Sen then?

Seventh, Thaksin is spending most of his time in Cambodia -- not Dubai as he would like most of us to believe. As the final battle draws near, he needs to stay close to the battlefield to issue his command.

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What is Thaksin's strategy? Or what options do he have now?

First, he has almost completely lost support from the military establishment. His allies within the army might not be strong enough to assist his comeback through a military intervention.

Second, he might resort to employing a redshirt uprising to create social upheavals.

Third, lobbying the Supreme Court on the assetseizure case is impossible now.

Fourth, Thaksin has threatened to take the assetseizure case to the World Court.

Fifth, Thaksin would fight to his last breath to defend his Bt76 billion assets.

My good guess is that Thaksin's only last option left is number two. He can only prevail or make a comeback through the Red Shirts Revolution.

If he does not resort to the Red Shirts Revolution, he almost certainly stands to lose his Bt76 billion.

If the Red Shirts come out in big number, we'll see power play.

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